Multi-Hazard Scenarios and Risk Assessments

Scenari multi-hazard e valutazioni del rischio

The cities exposed to natural and anthropogenic hazards should be planned and built for the potential levels of these hazards that can exceed the statistical levels significantly. The best current design practices of city habitats and infrastructures are based on the statistical levels of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and flooding, and are not sufficient to maintain their long-term resilience and make them sustainable. This invites large-scale disasters that will only increase with the passage of time as the planet experiences population growth and climate change. The populations of the cities in the vicinities of nuclear, chemical, and illicit landfill installations can experience severe health problems for decades, centuries, and even millennia, even after these facilities have terminated their intended operations. The responsible planning of such cities should be, therefore, based on the strategies that minimize the consequences of the maximum levels of the exposed natural and anthropogenic hazards. Such a planning can be accomplished through the development of multi-hazard scenarios and risk assessments where one or more large-scale hazards (such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions) can occur concurrently and where the release of toxic chemicals is unevenly distributed in time. The objective of this session on multi-hazard scenarios and risk assessments is to gather those studies that can produce effective risk assessment strategies for cities in hazardous environments. Risk analyses should be performed and communicated in such a way that the stakeholders see the results as valuable inputs for decision-making.